Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fabio D'andrea  Robert Vautard 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2000,52(1):21-41

A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe.  相似文献   

Synthetic tsunami mareograms for realistic oceanic models     

Giuliano F. Panza  Fabio Romanelli  & Tatiana B. Yanovskaya 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,141(2):498-508

We study how the tsunami mode is generated by a scaled double-couple seismic source, and how it propagates in realistic oceanic models. The method developed and used is the direct extension to tsunami waves propagating in multilayered oceanic media of the well-known Haskell method. The most intensive tsunamis may be expected from sources located within the crust in the deep-water parts of the ocean. The extension to laterally heterogeneous structures shows that, if the thickness of the ocean liquid layer diminishes, the maximum amplitude of the tsunami wave train increases.  相似文献   

Inclination of large coronal loops observed by TRACE     

Reale  Fabio 《Solar physics》1999,190(1-2):139-144

A TRACE field of view well inside the solar disk shows very well defined large loops, likely to be very inclined to the solar surface. On the other hand there is little evidence of large loops perpendicular to the solar surface. We show that this does not mean that most large loops have such large inclination but that perpendicular loops are much less visible to TRACE, because of density stratification. We quantitatively evaluate this effect by modeling in detail loops with different inclinations.  相似文献   

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?     

Fabio?OrianiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Raj?Mehrotra  Grégoire?Mariethoz  Julien?Straubhaar  Ashish?Sharma  Philippe?Renard 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(2):321-340

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic Characterization of Organic Structures and Organic‐Inorganic Interactions in Paper Mill Sludge     

Claudia M. B. F. Maia  Fabio Simonelli  Antinio S. Mangrich 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2001,28(7):372-377

The organic composition and organic‐inorganic interaction in paper mill sludge (PS) solvent extracts (hexane, ethyl acetate, acetone and ethanol) and humic fractions, humic acid (HA) and humin (HU) were studied by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy (EPR), proton and carbon‐13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H NMR; ¹³C NMR), Fourier‐transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and ultraviolet‐visible spectroscopy (UV‐vis). The strategy of fractionating the PS, sequentially, with organic solvents of increasing polarity is a reliable analytical procedure for humic substance sample separation because it results in more purified fractions. FTIR, ¹H NMR and ¹³C NMR results showed that hexane extract consisted mainly of aliphatic hydrocarbon structures. Their contents in the extracts decreased as the polarity of the extracting solvent increased and the content of oxygen functional groups increased. Carboxylic and carboxylate functional groups were found in the acetone extract, and ester and ether functions were predominantly found in the ethanol extract. EPR spectra revealed some Fe³⁺ complexes with rhombic structure (g₁ = 4.3; g₂ = 9.0) in the humic fractions and in all solvent extracts, except hexane. Quasi‐octahedral Fe³⁺ complexes (g = 2.3; ΔH_pp ≤ 400 G) were found in the HU fraction and in the acetone extract. The organic free radical content in the HA fraction was higher than the non‐fractionated PS sample and HU fraction.  相似文献   

The economic sustainability of artisanal fisheries: the case of the trawl ban in the Gulf of Castellammare, NW Sicily     

David Whitmarsh  Carlo Pipitone  Fabio Badalamenti  Giovanni D&#x;Anna 《Marine Policy》2003,27(6):489-497

Small-scale fisheries and the communities they support are often given the protection of designated fishing zones from which non-artisanal vessels are excluded. This paper looks at one example of this approach, the trawl ban introduced in the Gulf of Castellammare (NW Sicily), focussing on the economic sustainability of the artisanal fishery currently operating within the protected area. The consequences of lifting the trawl ban and how far this would jeopardise the sustainability of the artisanal fishery are explored via an analysis of the financial viability of trammel net vessels under alternative assumptions concerning catch rates. The paper also investigates fishermen's attitudes towards the trawl ban and their predisposition either to remain in the fishery or to quit in the event of the ban being removed.  相似文献   

Pliocene–Quaternary contourite depositional system along the south-western Adriatic margin: changes in sedimentary stacking pattern and associated bottom currents     

Claudio Pellegrini  Vittorio Maselli  Fabio Trincardi 《Geo-Marine Letters》2016,36(1):67-79

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A systematic analysis of the XMM-Newton background: I. Dataset and extraction procedures     

Martino Marelli  David Salvetti  Fabio Gastaldello  Simona Ghizzardi  Silvano Molendi  Andrea De Luca  Alberto Moretti  Mariachiara Rossetti  Andrea Tiengo 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,44(3):297-308

XMM-Newton is the direct precursor of the future ESA ATHENA mission. A study of its particle-induced background provides therefore significant insight for the ATHENA mission design. We make use of ～12 years of data, products from the third XMM-Newton catalog as well as FP7 EXTraS project to avoid celestial sources contamination and to disentangle the different components of the XMM-Newton particle-induced background. Within the ESA R&D AREMBES collaboration, we built new analysis pipelines to study the different components of this background: this covers time behavior as well as spectral and spatial characteristics.  相似文献   

Anatexis and fluid regime of the deep continental crust: New clues from melt and fluid inclusions in metapelitic migmatites from Ivrea Zone (NW Italy)     

Bruna B. Carvalho  Omar Bartoli  Fabio Ferri  Bernardo Cesare  Silvio Ferrero  Laurent Remusat  Luca S. Capizzi  Stefano Poli 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(7):951-975

We investigate the inclusions hosted in peritectic garnet from metapelitic migmatites of the Kinzigite Formation (Ivrea Zone, NW Italy) to evaluate the starting composition of the anatectic melt and fluid regime during anatexis throughout the upper amphibolite facies, transition, and granulite facies zones. Inclusions have negative crystal shapes, sizes from 2 to 10 μm and are regularly distributed in the core of the garnet. Microstructural and micro‐Raman investigations indicate the presence of two types of inclusions: crystallized silicate melt inclusions (i.e., nanogranitoids, NI), and fluid inclusions (FI). Microstructural evidence suggests that FI and NI coexist in the same cluster and are primary (i.e., were trapped simultaneously during garnet growth). FI have similar compositions in the three zones and comprise variable proportions of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂, commonly with siderite, pyrophyllite, and kaolinite, suggesting a COHN composition of the trapped fluid. The mineral assemblage in the NI contains K‐feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite, muscovite, chlorite, graphite and, rarely, calcite. Polymorphs such as kumdykolite, cristobalite, tridymite, and less commonly kokchetavite, were also found. Rehomogenized NI from the different zones show that all the melts are leucogranitic but have slightly different compositions. In samples from the upper amphibolite facies, melts are less mafic (FeO + MgO = 2.0–3.4 wt%), contain 860–1700 ppm CO₂ and reach the highest H₂O contents (6.5–10 wt%). In the transition zone melts have intermediate H₂O (4.8–8.5 wt%), CO₂ (457–1534 ppm) and maficity (FeO + MgO = 2.3–3.9 wt%). In contrast, melts at granulite facies reach highest CaO, FeO + MgO (3.2–4.7 wt%), and CO₂ (up to 2,400 ppm), with H₂O contents comparable (5.4–8.3 wt%) to the other two zones. Our results represent the first clear evidence for carbonic fluid‐present melting in the Ivrea Zone. Anatexis of metapelites occurred through muscovite and biotite breakdown melting in the presence of a COH fluid, in a situation of fluid–melt immiscibility. The fluid is assumed to have been internally derived, produced initially by devolatilization of hydrous silicates in the graphitic protolith, then as a result of oxidation of carbon by consumption of Fe³⁺‐bearing biotite during melting. Variations in the compositions of the melts are interpreted to result from higher T of melting. The H₂O contents of the melts throughout the three zones are higher than usually assumed for initial H₂O contents of anatectic melts. The CO₂ contents are highest at granulite facies, and show that carbon‐contents of crustal magmas are not negligible at high T. The activity of H₂O of the fluid dissolved in granitic melts decreases with increasing metamorphic grade. Carbonic fluid‐present melting of the deep continental crust represents, together with hydrate‐breakdown melting reactions, an important process in the origin of crustal anatectic granitoids.  相似文献   

A systematic analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">XMM-Newton</Emphasis> background: II. Properties of the in-Field-Of-View excess component     

David Salvetti  Martino Marelli  Fabio Gastaldello  Simona Ghizzardi  Silvano Molendi  Andrea De Luca  Alberto Moretti  Mariachiara Rossetti  Andrea Tiengo 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,44(3):309-320

We present an accurate characterization of the particle background behaviour on XMM-Newton based on the entire EPIC archive. This corresponds to the largest EPIC data set ever examined. Our results have been obtained thanks to the collaboration between the FP7 European program EXTraS and the ESA R&D ATHENA activity AREMBES. We used as a diagnostic an improved version of the diagnostic which compares the data collected in unexposed region of the detector with the region of the field of view in the EPIC-MOS. We will show that the in Field-of-View excess background is made up of two different components, one associated to flares produced by soft protons and the other one to a low-intensity background. Its origin needs to be further investigated.  相似文献